|Institution:||Università degli Studi di Milano|
|Keywords:||Time series analyses; MODIS; EVI; NDVI; wheat; Camargue; farm type; farm typologie; sowing date; data fuzion; winter wheat; Settore AGR/02 - Agronomia e Coltivazioni Erbacee|
|Full text PDF:||http://hdl.handle.net/2434/347538|
The research activities presented in this manuscript were conducted in the frame of the international project SCENARICE, whose aim is to demonstrate the contribution of different technical and scientific competences, to assess current characteristics of analyzed cropping systems and to define sustainable future agricultural scenarios. Dynamic simulation crop models are used to evaluate the efficiency of current cropping systems and to predict their performances as consequence of climate change scenarios. In this context, a lack of information regarding the intra- and inter-annual variability of crop practices was highlighted for crops such as winter wheat, for the study area of Camargue. Moreover, a description of possible future cropping systems adaptation strategies was needed to formulate short term scenario farming system assessment. To perform this analysis it is fundamental to identify the different farm typologies representing the study area. Since it was required to take into account inter-annual variability of crop practices and farm diversities to build farm typologies, representative data of the study region in both time and space were needed. To address this issue, in this work long term time series of satellite data (2003-2013) were exploited with the specific aims to: (i) provide winter wheat sowing dates estimations variability on a long term period (11 years) to contribute in base line scenario definition and (ii) reconstruct farms land use changes through the analysis of time series of satellite data to provide helpful information for farm typologies definition. Two main research activities were carried out to address the defined objectives. Firstly a rule-based methodology was developed to automatically identify winter wheat cultivated areas in order to retrieve crop sowing occurrences in the satellite time series. Detection criteria were derived on the basis of agronomic expert knowledge and by interpretation of high confidence temporal signature. The distinction of winter wheat from other crops was based on the individuation of the crop heading and establishment periods and considering the length of the crop cycle. The detection of winter wheat cultivated areas showed that 56% of the target in the study area was correctly detected with low commissions (11%). Once winter wheat area was detected, additional rules were designed to identify sowing dates. The method was able to capture the seasonal variability of sowing dates with errors of ±8 and ±16 days in 45% and 65% of cases respectively. Extending the analysis to the 11 years period it was observed that in Camargue the most frequent sowing period was about October 31th (±4 days of uncertainty). The 2004 and 2006 seasons showed early sowings (late September) the 2003 and 2008 seasons were slightly delayed at the beginning of November. Sowing dates were not correlated to the seasonal rainfall events; this led us to formulate the hypothesis that sowing dates could be much more influenced by the harvest date of the preceding crop and soil… Advisors/Committee Members: docente guida: R. Confalonieri, coordinatore: G. Zocchi, M. Boschetti, ZOCCHI, GRAZIANO, BOSCHETTI, MIRCO.