Economic Impact and Determinants of Migration and Trade in Germany

by Tanja Fendel

Institution: Freie Universität Berlin
Year: 2015
Posted: 02/05/2017
Record ID: 2111801
Full text PDF: http://edocs.fu-berlin.de/diss/receive/FUDISS_thesis_000000100101


The aim of this doctoral thesis is to carry out a differentiated analysis of current effects of migration and trade in Germany. Following an introductory chapter about the most important theories on migration and trade, two studies concentrate on migration and one study analyzes trade effects. The studies consider different relevant welfare indicators. Results therefore contribute to the public debate on various migration and trade related policy issues. The first study provides an analysis of the effect of migration on regional wage disparities in Germany. Using data from the Indicators and Maps on Urban Development in Germany and Europe” (INKAR) and the German Socio Economic Panel (GSOEP) from the years 1998 to 2009, dynamic panel estimations are applied to consider dynamics as well as the simultaneity between migration and regional labor market circumstances. To begin with, the influence of migration on relative wage levels is analyzed. The results show a small positive wage effect due to the overall regional migration balance. However, only domestic migration is relevant for analyzing the influence of migration on regional wage disparities. The wage effect due to domestic migration turns out to be smaller and negative. Regions seem to benefit primary from a combination of internal and foreign migration, however effects are small. Assuming that individuals usually move to high-wage regions, the negative wage effect of German migration would trigger an adjustment mechanism of wage disparities. Therefore, a second dynamic panel estimation tests whether an influence of the regional wage levels on migration exists. Results show no statistically significant effects. An adjustment of existing wage disparities due to migration is not likely to occur in Germany in the next few years. Concentrating on moves which are motivated by occupation, the second study evaluates main individual moving determinants. The central question is whether being unemployed has a positive effect on labor mobility. The empirical estimation is based on data from the GSOEP from the years 2001 to 2009. Following a bivariate probit approach, results are obtained estimating the joint probability of being unemployed and to move to account for the endogeneity of the unemployment variable in the migration equation. The results indicate that a work related decision to move is highly influenced by dwelling ownership. The moving and unemployment probabilities increase when a person has an unemployed partner or a migration background. Furthermore, the unemployed are often single and in inferior health circumstances. The central result is a significant negative influence of the unemployment status on the work-related moving probability. In addition, the effects of central main moving determinants are much smaller for the unemployed group. Certain moving barriers only seem to exist or to have more weight for unemployed people. The third empirical study analyzes the effects of a free trade agreement between the European Union and the…