AbstractsSociology

ASSESSING VULNERABILITY: A SYNTHESIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS TO AGRICULTURE

by Laurel Hanscom




Institution: San Diego State University
Department:
Year: 2015
Posted: 02/05/2017
Record ID: 2086613
Full text PDF: http://hdl.handle.net/10211.3/142624


Abstract

Over the next century, experts project a 2-5?? C rise in global temperatures ??? a change that will result in significant and lasting impacts to agriculture. The impacts of global warming will affect more than commercial agriculture; in fact, some argue that impacts will be most acute in regions where a majority of the population survives through subsistence farming. This shift will have direct impacts on those who rely on agriculture for their livelihoods, such as fieldworkers and farmers, but will moreover impact the entire planet with effects to global food production and consumption. Because these impacts are urgent and wide-reaching, understanding and anticipating how agriculture will be affected by climate change is crucial for global adaptation efforts. Through a synthesis of 52 case studies conducted since 2001, this research examines patterns in agricultural vulnerability to climate change around the world. Vulnerability, a combination of exposures, sensitivities and adaptive capacity, is measured in myriad ways. A synthesis approach allows for the identification of common factors in sensitivity and adaptive capacity while respecting the heterogeneity of pressures and the diversity of studies. Despite a universal recognition in the literature that vulnerability is a combination of biophysical and socioeconomic factors, biophysical factors constitute the bulk of those identified in the case studies. In two thirds of the studies, variable precipitation and drought conditions are cited, and over half the studies cite temperature increase. Frequently cited factors that impact adaptive capacity include access to financial resources, credit and social networks. Important adaptive techniques to combat climate change impacts to agriculture are crop diversification, irrigation, and shifts to the timing of planting and harvesting. However, while these practices and many others identified in the case studies address the biophysical vulnerabilities of agriculture, fewer adaptive measures address the socioeconomic sensitivities that also comprise vulnerability. These findings suggest that addressing climate change vulnerability in policy and scholarship should go beyond the adaptive measures to improve farming systems and consider ways to expand access to financial, technical and social resources. Advisors/Committee Members: Farley, Kathleen, Swanson, Katherine, Giordano, Sara.