AbstractsMathematics
| Institution: | Uppsala University |
|---|---|
| Department: | |
| Year: | 2015 |
| Keywords: | prediction markets; football; betfair; Natural Sciences; Mathematics; Probability Theory and Statistics; Naturvetenskap; Matematik; Sannolikhetsteori och statistik; Statistics; Statistik |
| Record ID: | 1364585 |
| Full text PDF: | http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-242132 |
Abstract
Our aim of this paper was to create a method for comparing the overall relative efficiency of a prediction market for the English football league Premier League and a prediction market for the Swedish football league Allsvenskan. The purpose of this was to see how the overall turnover of a prediction market affects the efficiency of it. We conclude that while the implied probability of the two markets on average corresponds well to the win frequency, the Premier League prediction market has statistically significant lower variation than Allsvenskan. The method we created can also be used to test the relative prediction accuracy of any two prediction markets/bookmakers given enough observations.
