|Institution:||Delft University of Technology|
|Keywords:||agent-based modelling; climate change; deep uncertainty; exploratory modelling and analysis; scenario discovery|
|Full text PDF:||http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:2fdc8520-e57c-423c-b959-24b1c80ef8ed|
This research has been aimed at identifying internally consistent and plausible narratives on the pathways of society’s response to climate change. In this research, society’s response to climate change has been interpreted as the emergence of climate change mitigation action by society. Studying society’s response to climate change is hampered by two main factors. First, the dynamics of society’s response to climate change are emergent and complex, as mitigation action arises out of the actions and interactions of the many actors in society. Second, society’s response to climate change is subject to many uncertainties. Agent-based modelling (ABM) has been identified as an appropriate method to get insight into the complexity and emergence of society’s response to climate change. Exploratory Modelling and Analysis (EMA) has been identified of a suitable approach to gain insight into the consequences of the uncertainties influencing society’s response to climate change. Combining ABM and EMA resulted in the design of a scenario discovery approach that supported the identification of narratives on the possible pathways of society's response to climate change.