AbstractsBusiness Management & Administration

In this thesis I want to use Monte Carlo simulation to get profits data of different power plants in America to help investors to make investment decisions. Because now electricity market already has changed into a new period which can be called liberalization. During liberalization electricity market investors must face investment risks themselves. Investors cannot give investment risks to consumers any more (Ropues, Nuttall & Newbery, 2006, p.3), which they can do before liberalization. So it is necessary to find a new way that can analyze variable risks properly. I choose nuclear power plant, natural gas power plant and coal power plant. First step I use sensitivity analysis to find out the biggest factors which can influence the values of the NPV of the three power plants. Second step I get the three power plants’ distributions of NPV. Third step I get the distributions of PI of the three power plants. During the Monte Carlo simulations of NPV analysis I make a conclusion that in the case of 10% discount rate natural gas power plant is the best choice and at 5% discount rate it is unclear natural gas or nuclear is the best choice. During Monte Carlo simulations of PI analysis I find that at 5% discount rate it is unclear which of the three power plants is the best choice and at 10% discount rate it is unclear coal or natural gas is best choice. Then I make portfolios analysis. The last part I analyze risk factors of investing in coal, natural gas and nuclear power plants. So the investors who want to invest in American power plants get a very good help from my analysis. They can do the final investment decision according to their own risk appetite on the base of my analysis. Vain tiivistelmä. Opinnäytteiden arkistokappaleet ovat luettavissa Helsingin yliopiston kirjastossa. Hae HELKA-tietokannasta (http://www.helsinki.fi/helka/index.htm). Abstract only. The paper copy of the whole thesis is available for reading room use at the Helsinki University Library. Search HELKA online catalog (http://www.helsinki.fi/helka/index.htm). Endast avhandlingens sammandrag. Pappersexemplaret av hela avhandlingen finns för läsesalsbruk i Helsingfors universitets bibliotek. Sök i HELKA-databasen (http://www.helsinki.fi/helka/index.htm).