|Keywords:||Trade Expectations; Copeland; Russia; China; Energy; Trade; Oil; Gas|
|Full text PDF:||http://rudar.ruc.dk/handle/1800/13490|
Energy Neighbours A look at Sino-Russian Energy Trade between 1993 and 2012 Ziyad Zaman Ahmed 44402 12/18/2013 Keystrokes: 83,814 Pages:34.92 Abstract The core of this investigation is the low level of energy trade between China and Russia despite seemingly complementary goals. Despite China’s large appetite for oil and gas imports, Russia is only a minor supplier instead the majority comes from far away suppliers in Africa and the Gulf. This is the starting point of the investigation to understand why a proximate supplier does not have a majority or at least the largest share in Chinese energy imports. The project has chosen the timeline of 1993-2012 because in 1993 China was no longer self-sufficient on domestic oil production and 2012 instead of 2013 to be able to procure complete data. The project implements Dale C. Copeland’s theory of trade expectations to understand the obstacles to trading in between China and Russia. A critical realist ontological and epistemological position has been adopted in conjuncture with mixed methods. The investigation finds the following 5 critical aspects of Sino-Russian energy trade in the chosen period – Price, Infrastructure, Mistrust, Other Consumers/Suppliers and the use of Oil as Foreign Policy by Russia. Theses aspects help enhance reasoning when combined with trade expectations theory. The project concludes with the findings that the aforementioned factors created low trade expectations for Russian supply and the dependence levels were too risky for significant trade to occur between 1993 and 2012.